Evaluating Tactical Readiness Across Forward Operating Bases Using Autonomous Resupply Protocols

Abstract

Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in contested and remote environments depend critically on reliable logistics to sustain operational readiness. This study develops a unified, normalized Tactical Readiness Index (TRI) that integrates detection latency (DL), mission continuity (MCI), adaptive response time (ART), and attrition resilience (AR) into a bounded, dimensionless measure of readiness. Using empirically anchored convoy performance data from CRPF operational reports and expert-elicited parameter ranges, we evaluate readiness across 229 FOBs under two logistical regimes: conventional convoy-based resupply and autonomous resupply using UAVs and robotic ground systems. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations per FOB incorporates realistic convoy disruptions as well as autonomous- system vulnerabilities, including weather-induced grounding, communication loss, and electronic warfare interference. Results show that autonomous resupply reduces latency, improves mission continuity, and increases resilience for most FOBs, though gains vary significantly with terrain, weather exposure, and electronic warfare risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that TRI rankings remain stable across alternative functional forms and parameter uncertainties. The findings highlight both the potential and the limits of autonomy in enhancing readiness, offering a rigorous, data-informed framework for logistics planning in counter-insurgency and distributed operations.

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